Estudo de viabilidade econômica com a utilização de simulação de Monte Carlo em uma empresa do segmento varejista em Belém-PA

Abstract

This study aims to do an economic viability analysis on a clothing company, located at Belém - PA, since there was no previous analysis of viability and return on the investment for the creation of this action. Will be used tools for computational simulation of prevision of different scenarios and analytic results, especially Monte Carlo's simulation, in order to minimize the uncertainties presents in the store's cash flow. This research is based on concepts of Economical Engeenier, with emphasis on Net Present Value (NPV). The simulation is realized in Excel and Crystal Ball software, where three scenarios are created to analyze the system behavior face of market variability. The first one, without refund growth, it shows a bigger probability of negative NPV, 75,10%. The second one, with a growth of 5% of refund, it shows an investment refund probability of 86,63%, but still, exist a risk to the investment. At last but not least, with a refund growth of 10%, it shows that when adding this refund value on the investment is almost certain, 99,80%. The goals reached shows that the enterprise with his actual administration ways, will not have satisfactory returns on his initial investments. However, with some administrative changes, the risk of the company not picking up positive results will be almost null